Population and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between population growth and economic growth in Nigeria. It particularly looked at the driving causes of population growth in Nigeria and the causal relationship between population and economic growth in the country from 1990 to 2017. The VAR granger causality analytical techniques used showed that economic growth significantly drives population growth in Nigeria. However, fertility rate and gross secondary enrolment drive population growth on a low significant level in the study while fertility rate was the only variable in the study that causes economic growth. The overall granger causality test indicates that all the variables (POPG, FRATE and EDU) significantly cause GDP to change in the Nigerian economy. One can deduce from the analysis that fertility rate which according to other studies is a major driver of population growth also accounts for economic growth, hence, the number of persons given birth to in Nigeria affects development. However, the direct granger causality of population on economic growth was only significant at a high degree of freedom and p-value. The study further revealed that economic growth significantly causes population growth in Nigeria. This indicates that the economic resources in the country have a way of reflecting on the number of people in the country. From the foregoing, it is obvious that population growth and economic growth in Nigeria exhibits unidirectional granger causality running from economic growth to population growth. More so, fertility rates and gross secondary enrolment (EDU) significantly exhibited bi-directional granger causality. Hence, it is also worth noting that all the variables (POPG, FRATE and GDPG) significantly contributed in causing gross secondary enrolment (EDU) in the country. The study concludes that fertility and secondary education are intermediate variables in the discourse of population and economic growth in Nigeria. The policy direction of education and fertility rate in the country can significantly reveal how population and economic growth relates. Hence, the study recommends that educational and fertility rate policies by all stakeholders should tilt toward ensuring the Nigerian populace achieve demographic dividend instead of demographic disaster.

Suggested citation

J.. Mayuku , M. Ekperiware , A. Mayor (2024). Population and Economic Growth in Nigeria Koozakar Proceedings, 1(1). https://doi.org/10.69798/22564925

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